Long term holders of Bitcoin are shipping! Selling 820000 bitcoins in the past month, may the upward trend be difficult to sustain?

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been hovering in the $100000 range recently, and long-term holders have been unusually active in the past month. Some analysts believe that this may indicate that the market is about to turn bearish, and when buyer demand weakens, it may catch investors off guard.

Long term holders sell Bitcoin in large quantities

Since November 8th, long-term holders of Bitcoin who have held it for at least 155 days have sold 827783 bitcoins, with a total value of approximately $82.6 billion based on current prices of around $99200 per coin.

CryptoQuant Analyst Maartuun pointed out in an X post on December 8th that although Micro Strategy purchased approximately 149800 bitcoins during this period, with an additional 84200 bitcoins flowing into Bitcoin spot ETFs, these buying volumes only accounted for 30% of the selling volumes of long-term holders. Maartuun warns that:

This is a music chair game: enjoy this journey, but always be prepared for the moment when the music stops

Retail demand becomes a supporting force

Despite the selling pressure from long-term holders, Bitcoin has maintained strong price performance, partly due to the rebound in retail demand. According to CryptoQuant's data, retail demand has reached an annual high.

At the same time, retail investors actively participate in Bitcoin futures trading. According to CoinGlass data, the total amount of open interest contracts (OI) for Bitcoin has reached $61.2 billion, reflecting the level of market trading activity.

Long term holders enjoy considerable unrealized profits

Maartuun Furthermore, it should be noted that the sell risk ratio and net receiver trading volume may indicate that the market is approaching the 'top'.

According to Bitbo data, the realized price of long-term holders (i.e. the average price at which long-term holders purchase Bitcoin) is $24481, which means that the average unrealized profit of these holders has reached about 400%.

Deterioration of liquidity environment

on the other hand, Real Vision Jamie Coutts, the Chief Cryptocurrency Analyst, also stated in a report on December 6th that according to his Bitcoin MSI macro model, deteriorating liquidity conditions may bring pressure.

Against the backdrop of reduced liquidity, Bitcoin has hit a new high, but if this situation worsens, this frenzy of upward momentum may not be sustainable

Overall, the price of Bitcoin is approaching a historic high, but large-scale selling by long-term holders and liquidity pressures may pose challenges to the market. Investors should remain cautious and pay attention to potential turning signals in the market.

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